A recent article from Reuters titled “Economic optimism lifts US copper to 13-month peak” provides an example of the leap of faith many are taking when they observe rising copper prices and conclude that global economic prospects are brighter. The article included a lot of bullet points, but most related to matters unrelated and unconnected [...]
Archive for October, 2009
Copper: What the bellwether metal tells us about a recovery.
Posted in commodities, economics, resources, tagged copper, LME prices, LME stockpiles, trade weighted index on October 24, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
US trade data shows a limp recovery after crash
Posted in Baltic dry, trade, tagged Baltic Dry index, China, US trade on October 14, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
An interesting article over on SeekingAlpha recently “Baltic Dry Index’s fall misleads investors.” The author pointed out that while the BDI is down, there is also a surplus of ships, so that the BDI weakness is not entirely due to lower levels of trade. Among the discussions that followed was a comment/question about the seasonality [...]
Iron ore and coal. Why it is all about China.
Posted in commodities, resources, tagged China, coal, iron, steel on October 12, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
We hear a lot about the BRIC countries. The plot below — world crude steel production this decade as of end of August — pretty much sums up why it is all about China, the “C” in BRIC, when it comes to iron ore and metallurgical coal demand. The plot shows the enormous growth in [...]
Using Mathematica to create a daily list of Trade Weight Index data
Posted in commodities, mathematica, tagged LME prices, mathematica, trade weighted index, TWI on October 11, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Given the weakness (freefall?) of the US Dollar I decided to make another series of LME data, this one with Trade Weight Index corrected pricing. The Fed Trade Weight Index (TWI) is published weekly whereas the LME trades daily and is closed on certain holidays. So I wanted to create a list of the TWI [...]
Lynas
Posted in rare earths, tagged Lynas, rare earths on October 3, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Lynas dropped 24% in their first day of trading since the proposed hook up with Chinese co. CNMC was blocked by the Australian FIRB. Down further on Friday closing at 65 cents after trading at 90 before the FIRB stepped in. Could be a long term buy if it retraces back to levels we saw [...]
Mathematica work-flows. Retrieving, processing and presenting data. #1 Retrieving
Posted in mathematica, tagged automation, import data, mathematica on October 3, 2009 | 1 Comment »
Introduction The WWW is rich with sources of useful data, some of which are available directly, others require registration and subsequent login. I want to discuss how independent investors, without access to Bloomberg, Reuters and other expensive data sources, can streamline their work-flow by automating data access and processing. You’re busy—you want to analyse your [...]
Tin traders warn LME prices do not reflect reality, …what, and prices of other metals do?
Posted in commodities, tagged LME prices, tin, WCI on October 2, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
According to Reuters, London Metals Exchange (LME) tin traders are describing the market as “disorderly” and saying that prices do not reflect reality. Apparently a single entity owns 90% of long warrants. My reaction is that while having one entity controlling the long side is obviously a distortion, what is causing other metals to be [...]
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