The U.S. Census Bureau released the Advance Monthly Retail Trade and Food Services Survey late last week and on the face of it it seems like good news. By that I mean good news that IS good, whereas “less bad” has often been taken as being good in recent times. Seasonally adjusted retail sales were [...]
Archive for December, 2009
Retail sales: no boom, just doom and gloom
Posted in economy, tagged retail sales on December 13, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Trade data points to L shaped outlook.
Posted in trade, tagged US trade on December 13, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
At first glance the contraction in the trade deficit for October looks positive. I’m generally wary of seasonally adjusted data — not because seasonal effects don’t exist but because I prefer to see the raw data and the algorithm used to do the smoothing. Non seasonally adjusted data for the trade in goods is available [...]
Rail freight: proof of an economic train wreck?
Posted in commodities, tagged rail freight on December 5, 2009 | Leave a Comment »
Total carloads and intermodal rail freight data are plotted in the two charts below as 4 week moving averages. The improvement we’re seeing needs to be viewed in the context of a trending increases in freight that occurs throughout the year through to October. The data certainly lacks the characteristics of a V shaped rebound. [...]
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